Ukraine and US Fail to Finalize Rare Earth Minerals Agreement
On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine held a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, aiming to sign a deal allowing the US to access Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nonetheless, the discussions took a surprising shift, resulting in a tense argument with Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky left prematurely, the White House confirmed that no deal was finalized.
Prior to the meeting, Zelensky had shown optimism, suggesting this “initial” agreement might lead to expanded collaboration. However, he acknowledged that Ukraine still needed to obtain security assurances from the US, which was a major point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the assistance given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that European nations should primarily handle Kyiv’s security needs.
What Are the Terms of the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv and Washington had finalized a draft of the agreement, which was released on Friday morning. The deal outlined the creation of an “investment fund” to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.
Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on “equal terms.” Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.
The US, for its part, committed to a sustained financial investment aimed at fostering stability and prosperity in Ukraine, in line with US law. The agreement also specified that the US would hold the largest share of the fund allowed by American rules.
Conflicts Regarding Mineral Rights and Financial Conditions
It seems that the discord between Trump and Zelensky intensified due to particular aspects of the minerals agreement. Initially, the US proposed a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral assets, which Zelensky declined. Sources suggest that this demand was subsequently revoked.
According to Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Washington initially proposed an arrangement that undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty and would have led to economic collapse. However, he noted that the US has since revised its approach, now offering a more balanced deal based on co-ownership, without direct claims on past aid. This, he argued, could ultimately benefit Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, mentioning on Tuesday that the US has given $300 billion to $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, suggesting that a minerals agreement might help reclaim these funds. Nonetheless, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US assistance totals $119 billion.
Does the Agreement Include Security Guarantees?
A key issue for Zelensky has been obtaining clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he affirmed that no such assurances had been secured.
“I sought a clause concerning security guarantees for Ukraine as it is vital,” Zelensky remarked.
When asked whether he would abandon the agreement if security assurances were not provided, he responded: “I want to secure a NATO path or something similar. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will function.”
Despite the lack of direct security commitments, the agreement includes language indicating US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees to achieve lasting peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not conclude the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus on security assurances and devised a way to incorporate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, on the other hand, minimized the necessity of direct US security guarantees, asserting that these obligations should now fall to Europe. He mentioned that the involvement of American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the “right to keep fighting,” and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has also asserted that Russia is amenable to the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this notion.
What is the Timeline for Signing the Agreement?
Trump initially announced that the agreement would be finalized during Friday’s White House meeting. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal verified that the final draft of the agreement was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was meant to be signed.
No agreement was signed, though. Instead, the meeting escalated into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one juncture, an irate Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US aid and cautioned that he was “risking World War Three.”
“You need to make a deal, or we’re out,” Trump reportedly told Zelensky. “You don’t have the leverage.”
In reply, Zelensky emphasized that “no compromises” could be made with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly after and earlier than planned, Zelensky departed from the White House. Subsequently, the White House declared that the agreement was not completed, with Trump personally calling off the signing event.
Trump later posted on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its cherished Oval Office” and stating: “He can come back when he is ready for peace.”
Currently, it remains uncertain whether the agreement will be signed or when it might occur.
Ukraine’s Rich Mineral Resources
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine’s reserves account for about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This comprises around 19 million metric tons of verified graphite reserves, positioning Ukraine as one of the top five global providers of this essential mineral for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.
Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.
Further complicating the situation, some of the mineral-abundant regions in Ukraine are currently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko states that mineral deposits valued at approximately $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
A further challenge to mineral extraction is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that approximately 25% of Ukraine’s terrain is affected, especially in the conflict-ravaged eastern areas.
Time poses another issue. Even if the agreement reaches completion, it may take years before the mining and export of these resources deliver concrete economic advantages.
“These resources are not sitting in a warehouse waiting for shipment—they must be developed,” Mylovanov explained. “If the US invests, it could ultimately benefit all parties.”
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet made any remarks regarding the reported specifics of the US-Ukraine agreement. However, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is ready to “offer” mineral resources to American firms for joint ventures, which includes mining in Russia’s “new territories”—referring to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia “certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“Regarding the new territories, we are prepared to welcome foreign collaborators for the development of these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he added.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the circumstances are still evolving: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will finalize this agreement or something else, remains to be seen. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.”
